House strategies
Strategies we built, and how they did.
Each strategy was tuned on older history only, then run once on the most recent stretch it had never seen, after trading fees and slippage. That unseen result is what ranks it, shown beside what simply holding the coin did over the same weeks. Every number comes from the stored backtest report.
#1 · ETH · 1d · long only
Reclaim the 200 EMA
+7.0%
unseen data
Only 13 trades
- Buy & hold
- −21.9%
- vs buy & hold
- +28.9 pts
- Trades
- 13
- Win rate
- 46%
- Max drawdown
- −4.1%
- Profit factor
- 1.97
- Entry: Price crosses above the 200 EMA
Stayed up while ETH fell about 22% over the same months: it buys only once price is back above its 200-day average.
Unseen Apr 2024 – Oct 2026 · tuned on earlier data only · after 0.05% fee + 0.05% slippage
#2 · ETH · 1d · long only
Golden cross 50/200
+3.8%
unseen data
Only 2 trades
- Buy & hold
- −21.9%
- vs buy & hold
- +25.7 pts
- Trades
- 2
- Win rate
- 100%
- Max drawdown
- −1.9%
- Profit factor
- —
- Entry: EMA 50 crosses above EMA 200
Two trades on unseen data: a direction, not yet evidence.
Unseen Apr 2024 – Oct 2026 · tuned on earlier data only · after 0.05% fee + 0.05% slippage
#3 · ETH · 5m · long only
Volume-confirmed EMA 9/21
+2.8%
unseen data
- Buy & hold
- −5.1%
- vs buy & hold
- +7.9 pts
- Trades
- 57
- Win rate
- 28%
- Max drawdown
- −4.9%
- Profit factor
- 1.18
- Entry: Volume spikes to 2× its average
- Then: EMA 9 crosses above EMA 21
A 5-minute day-trading rule: EMA 9 over 21 only right after a volume spike. Made money while ETH slipped about 5%.
Unseen Sep 2026 – Oct 2026 · tuned on earlier data only · after 0.05% fee + 0.05% slippage
#4 · BTC · 1d · long only
Reclaim the 200 EMA
+2.6%
unseen data
Only 14 tradesLikely overfit
- Buy & hold
- +27.2%
- vs buy & hold
- −24.6 pts
- Trades
- 14
- Win rate
- 50%
- Max drawdown
- −3.2%
- Profit factor
- 1.37
- Entry: Price crosses above the 200 EMA
Made money, but holding BTC made far more over the same months, and the tuning looks overfit.
Unseen Apr 2024 – Oct 2026 · tuned on earlier data only · after 0.05% fee + 0.05% slippage
#5 · ETH · 1h · long only
EMA 9/21 cross above
+0.3%
unseen data
- Buy & hold
- −18.8%
- vs buy & hold
- +19.1 pts
- Trades
- 146
- Win rate
- 37%
- Max drawdown
- −15.1%
- Profit factor
- 1.02
- Entry: EMA 9 crosses above EMA 21
Roughly flat while ETH fell about 19%: it sat out most of the decline.
Unseen Nov 2025 – Oct 2026 · tuned on earlier data only · after 0.01% fee + 0.02% slippage
Backtests, not live results, and not advice. Past performance does not predict future returns; a strategy that worked on history can lose money from here. See the risk disclosure.